2024 Election Forecast Fivethirtyeight. In 2020, the fivethirtyeight forecast gave wider uncertainties for state and national vote predictions, leading to win probabilities that were closer to 50%, compared to other. A consensus outlook for the 2024 house elections based on the current ratings of these forecasters.
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. 538’s 2024 senate election forecast model showing democratic and republican chances of winning control.